Why is San Francisco Condo Market up almost 30% in One Year
San Francisco condo prices have surged over the past year, largely because buyers who can’t compete in the single-family home market are shifting into condos instead.
Single-family homes in prime neighborhoods are seeing extreme competition, with many properties selling hundreds of thousands — sometimes millions — over asking. Buyers with $3M–$5M budgets who once focused exclusively on houses are now targeting larger condos and even multi-unit buildings in neighborhoods like Noe Valley, Eureka Valley, Pacific Heights, and Alamo Square.
That demand shift is pushing condo prices sharply higher.
I recently saw this firsthand with a 3BD/3BR condo in Corona Heights that sold for more than $3M after being listed around $1.9M this Spring — in 15 days. The buyers competing for it were largely people competing outside of single-family homes nearby.
Why Is This Happening?
A major driver is tech liquidity.
Over the last year, companies like OpenAI and Anthropic enabled billions in secondary stock sales, creating significant new purchasing power across the Bay Area. Combined with years of stock market growth and generational wealth transfers, many buyers simply have far larger budgets than they did a few years ago.
At the same time, inventory remains historically low. San Francisco currently has far fewer single-family homes available than normal for this time of year, which continues to intensify competition.
Which Condos Are Moving Fastest?
The strongest demand is for:
Three-bedroom condos
Larger floor plans (2,000+ sq ft)
Walkable central neighborhoods
Homes that function similarly to single-family properties
Pacific Heights was one of the first condo markets to accelerate, but the trend is spreading across the city. We’re also seeing renewed competition in downtown and South Beach high-rises as AI companies continue expanding office footprints in San Francisco.
Are Condos Still a Good Buy?
For many buyers, yes.
There are currently far more condos available than single-family homes, and price-per-square-foot is still meaningfully lower in many neighborhoods. Buyers willing to consider condos or multi-unit properties are often able to stay in prime locations that would otherwise be out of reach.
The gap between condo and single-family pricing is narrowing quickly, especially in central neighborhoods.
What Buyers Under $3M Should Consider
In this market, flexibility matters.
Some of the best opportunities right now are in neighborhoods like:
Inner Richmond
Inner Sunset
Bernal Heights
Inner Mission
I’m also encouraging buyers to seriously consider:
Larger condos in prime neighborhoods
Multi-unit buildings
Select downtown high-rises that still haven’t fully recovered from post-COVID pricing
The San Francisco market has shifted dramatically over the last 12 months, and buyers who adapt early are generally finding the best opportunities.
Interested in learning more & Not already working with an agent? Reach out and lets connect!
